Mastering Candlestick and Chart Patterns

A Visual Guide to Profitable Trading

Candlestick Patterns

Table of Contents

Part 1: Foundations of Technical Analysis

Chapter 1: Introduction to Technical Analysis

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical analysis is a methodology used to forecast the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Unlike fundamental analysis, which focuses on a company's intrinsic value, technical analysis concentrates on patterns of price movements, trading signals, and various analytical charting tools to evaluate a security's strength or weakness.

Definition: Technical analysis is the study of historical price action to forecast future price movement, based on the belief that market price reflects all available information and moves in patterns that tend to repeat over time.

The Core Principles of Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is founded on three key principles:

  1. Market action discounts everything: The price reflects all known information about the asset, including fundamental factors, market psychology, and external events.
  2. Prices move in trends: Once established, price trends are more likely to continue than reverse, following the path of least resistance.
  3. History tends to repeat itself: Market movements are often cyclical, creating recognizable patterns that can be used to predict future price action.

Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis

Technical analysis and fundamental analysis represent two distinct approaches to market analysis, each with its own strengths and appropriate applications:

Factor Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis
Focus Price and volume patterns Intrinsic value of assets
Time Frame Short to medium term Medium to long term
Data Used Historical prices, volume, open interest Financial statements, economic data, industry trends
Goal Identify entry and exit points Determine if an asset is over or undervalued

While both approaches have merit, many successful traders combine technical and fundamental analysis to make more informed trading decisions. Technical analysis excels at timing entries and exits, while fundamental analysis helps identify which assets to trade and the underlying factors driving price movements.

The Importance of Price Action

Price action—the movement of price over time—is the foundation of technical analysis. It reflects all market forces, including supply and demand dynamics, market sentiment, and trader psychology. By studying price action, traders can:

Tip: When analyzing price action, focus on multiple timeframes to gain a comprehensive view of market dynamics. A pattern might look significant on a smaller timeframe but could be just noise within a larger trend.

Timeframes in Trading

Technical analysis can be applied across various timeframes, from tick charts for scalpers to monthly charts for long-term investors. The choice of timeframe depends on your trading style, objectives, and available time for market analysis:

Higher timeframes generally provide more reliable signals but fewer trading opportunities, while lower timeframes offer more frequent setups but with higher noise levels and potentially more false signals.

Chart Patterns Overview

A visual comparison of price charts highlighting different timeframes and patterns.

Chapter 2: Understanding Price Charts

Types of Charts: Line Charts, Bar Charts, Candlestick Charts

Technical analysts use several types of charts to visualize price movements. Each chart type offers a different perspective on market activity:

Line Charts

Line charts are the simplest form of price charts, plotting a single price point—usually the closing price—for each time period. They provide a clean visualization of overall price trends but lack the detail of more advanced chart types.

Bar Charts

Bar charts display more information than line charts by showing the opening, high, low, and closing prices (OHLC) for each time period. Each bar consists of:

Candlestick Charts

Candlestick charts, originating in 18th century Japan, also display OHLC data but in a more visually intuitive format. Their design makes patterns and market sentiment easier to identify at a glance, which is why they're the preferred chart type for most technical analysts and traders.

Candlestick Types

Various candlestick types showing different market conditions.

Anatomy of a Candlestick: Open, High, Low, Close, Body, Wicks

Understanding the components of a candlestick is essential for interpreting what they reveal about market conditions:

Key Components of a Candlestick:

  • Real Body: The rectangular part of the candlestick that represents the range between the opening and closing prices.
  • Upper Shadow (Wick): The thin line extending above the body, representing the highest price reached during the period.
  • Lower Shadow (Wick): The thin line extending below the body, representing the lowest price reached during the period.
  • Color: Typically, green (or white) for bullish candles where close is higher than open, and red (or black) for bearish candles where close is lower than open.

The size and proportion of these components provide valuable insights:

Bullish vs. Bearish Candlesticks

The fundamental distinction between candlesticks is whether they're bullish or bearish:

Bullish Candlesticks

A bullish candlestick forms when the closing price is higher than the opening price, resulting in a filled or colored body. It indicates buying pressure and potential upward momentum.

Characteristics:

  • Close price > Open price
  • Usually green or white in color
  • The longer the body, the stronger the buying pressure

Bearish Candlesticks

A bearish candlestick forms when the closing price is lower than the opening price. It indicates selling pressure and potential downward momentum.

Characteristics:

  • Close price < Open price
  • Usually red or black in color
  • The longer the body, the stronger the selling pressure

Volume and Its Significance

Volume represents the number of shares or contracts traded during a specified period. It's a critical companion to price analysis, providing confirmation and context for price movements:

Important: Never underestimate the importance of volume. Price movements without corresponding volume support should be viewed with caution, as they may lack the conviction needed to sustain momentum.

Candlestick Types Chart

Detailed illustration of various bullish and bearish candlesticks with all parts clearly labeled.

Part 2: Single Candlestick Patterns

Chapter 3: Bullish Reversal Patterns

Bullish reversal patterns are formations that typically appear after a downtrend, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. These patterns suggest that buyers are beginning to overpower sellers, potentially leading to an upward price movement.

Hammer

Characteristics

  • Small real body at the upper end of the trading range
  • Little or no upper shadow
  • Long lower shadow (at least twice the length of the body)
  • Appears after a downtrend
Hammer Pattern

Hammer candlestick pattern forming at the end of a downtrend, followed by an upward price movement.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The hammer forms during a downtrend when selling pressure initially pushes prices lower (creating the long lower shadow), but buyers step in before the close, driving prices back up to near the opening level. This buying pressure suggests a potential reversal of the downtrend as bulls begin to gain control.

Confirmation

While the hammer provides a potential reversal signal, prudent traders wait for confirmation before entering a position. Confirmation may include:

  • A bullish candle following the hammer
  • Strong increase in volume on the day after the hammer
  • Price breaking above a recent resistance level

Trading Example

Let's examine a scenario where a trader identifies a hammer pattern in a stock that has been in a downtrend:

  1. Setup: Stock XYZ has been declining for several weeks, falling from $50 to $35.
  2. Pattern Identification: A hammer candlestick forms at $35 with a small body and long lower shadow.
  3. Confirmation: The following day, XYZ opens higher and continues to rise, closing above the high of the hammer candle with above-average volume.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a long position at $36.50.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed below the low of the hammer at $33.80.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at the previous resistance level of $42.00.

Inverted Hammer

Characteristics

  • Small real body at the lower end of the trading range
  • Little or no lower shadow
  • Long upper shadow (at least twice the length of the body)
  • Appears after a downtrend
Inverted Hammer Pattern

Inverted Hammer pattern forming at the end of a downtrend, followed by an upward price movement.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The inverted hammer forms when buyers initially push prices higher during the session (creating the long upper shadow), but encounter selling pressure that brings the price back down. However, the fact that buyers were able to temporarily push prices significantly higher during a downtrend suggests weakening bearish conviction and a potential shift in momentum.

Confirmation

The inverted hammer is generally considered a weaker bullish signal than the hammer and therefore requires stronger confirmation:

  • A strong bullish candle following the inverted hammer
  • Significant increase in volume on the confirmation day
  • A breakout above a key resistance level

Trading Example

Consider this trading scenario using an inverted hammer pattern:

  1. Setup: Currency pair EUR/USD has been in a downtrend, falling from 1.1500 to 1.0800.
  2. Pattern Identification: An inverted hammer forms at 1.0800.
  3. Confirmation: The following day, EUR/USD opens higher and forms a strong bullish candle, closing near its high with above-average volume.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a long position at 1.0850.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed below the low of the inverted hammer at 1.0780.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1150.

Bullish Engulfing

Characteristics

  • Two-candle pattern
  • First candle is a bearish (red/black) candle with a relatively small body
  • Second candle is a bullish (green/white) candle that completely engulfs the body of the previous candle
  • Appears after a downtrend
Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Bullish Engulfing pattern engulfing the previous bearish candlestick, followed by an upward price movement.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The bullish engulfing pattern represents a decisive shift in market sentiment. After a period of downward momentum, the second day opens lower (showing continued bearish sentiment), but then buyers take control and push the price higher, closing above the previous day's open. This dramatic reversal in a single session suggests strong buying pressure and a potential trend change.

Confirmation

The bullish engulfing pattern is considered a relatively strong signal, especially when:

  • The engulfing candle has significantly higher volume than the previous candle
  • The engulfing candle closes near its high
  • The pattern forms at a key support level or after an extended downtrend
  • Subsequent candles continue to move higher

Trading Example

Here's how a trader might use a bullish engulfing pattern:

  1. Setup: Gold has been in a downtrend, falling from $1,850 to $1,720 per ounce.
  2. Pattern Identification: A small bearish candle forms at $1,720, followed by a bullish engulfing candle that opens below the previous day's close and closes above its open.
  3. Confirmation: Volume on the engulfing day is twice the average, and the following day opens higher.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a long position at $1,735.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed below the low of the engulfing candle at $1,710.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at the previous resistance level of $1,780.

Piercing Line

Characteristics

  • Two-candle pattern
  • First candle is a long bearish (red/black) candle
  • Second candle is a bullish (green/white) candle that opens below the low of the previous candle but closes above the midpoint of the previous candle's body
  • Appears during a downtrend
Piercing Line Pattern

Piercing Line pattern forming within a downtrend, with the second bullish candle opening below the previous low and closing above the midpoint.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The piercing line pattern represents a shift from strong selling pressure to significant buying interest. After a bearish day, the market opens even lower the next day (possibly due to overnight pessimism), but buyers step in decisively, pushing the price up to close above the midpoint of the previous day's body. This recovery shows that bulls have regained some control and may be starting to reverse the prevailing downtrend.

Confirmation

Look for these factors to strengthen the piercing line signal:

  • The second candle closes deeper into the first candle's body (ideally above the 66% level rather than just above the midpoint)
  • Higher than average volume on the second day
  • The pattern forms at a known support level
  • Subsequent candles continue the upward movement

Trading Example

A trading approach using a piercing line pattern:

  1. Setup: Stock ABC has been declining for several weeks, falling from $75 to $58.
  2. Pattern Identification: A large bearish candle forms with a close at $58, followed by a gap down and a bullish candle that closes at $62, which is above the midpoint of the previous candle.
  3. Confirmation: Volume on the second day is 30% higher than the 20-day average, and the third day opens and trades higher.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a long position at $63.50.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed below the low of the second candle at $56.50.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at a previous consolidation area around $69.

Morning Star

Characteristics

  • Three-candle pattern
  • First candle is a long bearish (red/black) candle
  • Second candle is a small-bodied candle (either color) that gaps down from the first
  • Third candle is a bullish (green/white) candle that closes well into the body of the first candle
  • Appears at the end of a downtrend
Morning Star Pattern

Morning Star pattern (bearish candle, small-bodied candle, bullish candle) forming at the bottom of a downtrend.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The morning star represents a clear transition from bearishness to bullishness:

  1. The first candle shows strong selling pressure and continuation of the downtrend.
  2. The second candle (the "star") indicates indecision and a potential slowing of the downtrend as neither buyers nor sellers gain clear control.
  3. The third candle confirms the reversal as buyers take control, pushing prices significantly higher and erasing much of the decline from the first day.

This three-day transition from bearish to indecision to bullish suggests a significant shift in market sentiment and a potential bottom formation.

Confirmation

The morning star is considered one of the most reliable reversal patterns, especially when:

  • The third candle closes deeper into the body of the first candle (ideally above its midpoint)
  • Volume increases progressively over the three days, with the third day showing the highest volume
  • The pattern forms after an extended downtrend
  • The "star" has a very small real body, emphasizing the market's indecision

Trading Example

Here's a practical application of the morning star pattern:

  1. Setup: Cryptocurrency Bitcoin has fallen from $45,000 to $30,000 over several weeks.
  2. Pattern Identification: A large red candle takes BTC down to $30,000, followed by a small doji star that gaps slightly lower, followed by a strong green candle that closes at $34,000.
  3. Confirmation: Volume on the third day is twice the 10-day average, and the following days continue to trade higher.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a long position at $35,200.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed below the low of the star candle at $29,500.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at the 50% retracement level of the prior downtrend, around $37,500.

Chapter 4: Bearish Reversal Patterns

Bearish reversal patterns typically form after an uptrend and signal a potential shift from bullish to bearish market sentiment. These patterns indicate that sellers are beginning to overpower buyers, potentially leading to a downward price movement.

Hanging Man

Characteristics

  • Shape identical to the hammer (small body, little or no upper shadow, long lower shadow)
  • The lower shadow should be at least twice the length of the body
  • Appears at the end of an uptrend
  • Color of the body is less important, though a red/black body provides a slightly stronger signal
Hanging Man Pattern

Hanging Man pattern forming at the end of an uptrend, followed by a downward price movement.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The hanging man pattern indicates that despite the ongoing uptrend, significant selling pressure emerged during the session (creating the long lower shadow). Although buyers were able to push the price back up by the close, the appearance of substantial selling in a bullish market is a warning sign. It suggests that the uptrend may be losing momentum and sellers may be beginning to gain control.

Confirmation

Since the hanging man only indicates potential weakness rather than confirmed reversal, traders typically look for these confirmation signals:

  • A bearish (red/black) candle following the hanging man
  • Higher than average volume on both the hanging man and the confirmation candle
  • A gap down on the day after the hanging man
  • The price breaking below a recent support level

Trading Example

Here's a trading approach using the hanging man pattern:

  1. Setup: Stock DEF has been in a strong uptrend, rising from $25 to $40 over several weeks.
  2. Pattern Identification: A hanging man candlestick forms at $40 with a small body and long lower shadow.
  3. Confirmation: The following day, DEF gaps down and closes lower with above-average volume.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a short position at $38.50.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed above the high of the hanging man at $40.50.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at the previous support level of $35.00.

Shooting Star

Characteristics

  • Shape identical to the inverted hammer (small body, little or no lower shadow, long upper shadow)
  • The upper shadow should be at least twice the length of the body
  • Appears at the end of an uptrend
  • A red/black body provides a stronger signal, though color is not critical
Shooting Star Pattern

Shooting Star pattern forming at the end of an uptrend, followed by a downward price movement.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The shooting star forms when buyers initially push prices significantly higher during the session (creating the long upper shadow), but encounter strong selling pressure that pushes the price back down to near the opening level. This rejection of higher prices suggests that the uptrend may be losing momentum and that bears are beginning to overpower bulls.

Confirmation

To confirm the bearish signal from a shooting star, traders typically look for:

  • A bearish candle following the shooting star
  • Higher than average volume on the confirmation day
  • A break below a key support level
  • Technical indicators showing overbought conditions

Trading Example

A practical application of the shooting star pattern:

  1. Setup: Oil futures have been in an uptrend, rising from $65 to $80 per barrel.
  2. Pattern Identification: A shooting star forms at $80 with a small body and long upper shadow that tested $83 before falling back.
  3. Confirmation: The following day, oil opens lower and forms a strong bearish candle with above-average volume.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a short position at $77.50.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed above the high of the shooting star at $83.50.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at the previous consolidation area around $72.00.

Bearish Engulfing

Characteristics

  • Two-candle pattern
  • First candle is a bullish (green/white) candle with a relatively small body
  • Second candle is a bearish (red/black) candle that completely engulfs the body of the previous candle
  • Appears at the end of an uptrend
Bearish Engulfing Pattern

Bearish Engulfing pattern engulfing the previous bullish candlestick, followed by a downward price movement.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The bearish engulfing pattern represents a decisive shift from bullish to bearish sentiment. After a period of upward momentum (symbolized by the green first candle), the market opens higher the next day (showing continued optimism), but then sellers take control and push the price lower, closing below the previous day's open. This dramatic reversal in a single session indicates strong selling pressure and suggests a potential end to the uptrend.

Confirmation

The bearish engulfing pattern is considered a strong reversal signal, especially when:

  • The engulfing candle has significantly higher volume than the previous candle
  • The engulfing candle closes near its low
  • The pattern forms at a key resistance level or after an extended uptrend
  • Technical indicators show overbought conditions

Trading Example

Here's how a trader might use a bearish engulfing pattern:

  1. Setup: Stock GHI has been in an uptrend, rising from $50 to $75.
  2. Pattern Identification: A small bullish candle forms at $75, followed by a bearish engulfing candle that opens above the previous day's close and closes below its open.
  3. Confirmation: Volume on the engulfing day is 150% of the average, and the following day opens and trades lower.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a short position at $71.50.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed above the high of the engulfing candle at $76.50.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at a previous support level of $65.00.

Dark Cloud Cover

Characteristics

  • Two-candle pattern
  • First candle is a long bullish (green/white) candle
  • Second candle opens above the high of the previous candle but closes below the midpoint of the previous candle's body
  • Appears during an uptrend
Dark Cloud Cover Pattern

Dark Cloud Cover pattern forming within an uptrend, with the second bearish candle opening above the previous high and closing below the midpoint.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The dark cloud cover pattern reveals a significant shift in sentiment within the market:

  1. The first day shows strong buying pressure, continuing the uptrend.
  2. The second day opens even higher (suggesting continued bullishness), but then sellers take control.
  3. By the end of the second day, sellers have pushed the price down below the midpoint of the previous day's body, erasing more than half of the previous day's gains.

This sharp reversal from optimism to pessimism suggests that the bulls are losing control and the uptrend may be ending.

Confirmation

The dark cloud cover signal is strengthened when:

  • The second candle closes deeper into the first candle's body (ideally below the 66% level rather than just below the midpoint)
  • Volume is higher on the second day than on the first
  • The pattern forms at a known resistance level
  • The shadows of the second candle are short, indicating decisive selling

Trading Example

A trading approach using the dark cloud cover pattern:

  1. Setup: Currency pair USD/JPY has been in an uptrend, rising from 110.00 to 115.50.
  2. Pattern Identification: A large bullish candle pushes the pair to 115.50, followed by a gap up and a bearish candle that closes at 114.20, which is below the midpoint of the previous candle.
  3. Confirmation: Volume on the second day is higher, and the next day opens and trades lower.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a short position at 113.80.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed above the high of the second candle at 116.00.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at a previous consolidation area around 112.50.

Evening Star

Characteristics

  • Three-candle pattern
  • First candle is a long bullish (green/white) candle
  • Second candle is a small-bodied candle (either color) that gaps up from the first
  • Third candle is a bearish (red/black) candle that closes well into the body of the first candle
  • Appears at the end of an uptrend
Evening Star Pattern

Evening Star pattern (bullish candle, small-bodied candle, bearish candle) forming at the top of an uptrend.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The evening star represents a clear shift from bullishness to bearishness:

  1. The first candle shows strong buying pressure and continuation of the uptrend.
  2. The second candle (the "star") indicates indecision as the market stalls after the strong advance.
  3. The third candle confirms the reversal as sellers take control, pushing prices significantly lower and erasing much of the first day's advance.

This three-day transition from bullish to indecision to bearish demonstrates a clear shift in market sentiment and suggests a potential top formation.

Confirmation

The evening star is considered one of the most reliable bearish reversal patterns, especially when:

  • The third candle closes deeper into the body of the first candle (ideally below its midpoint)
  • Volume increases progressively over the three days, with the third day showing the highest volume
  • The pattern forms after an extended uptrend or at a major resistance level
  • The "star" has a very small real body, emphasizing the market's indecision

Trading Example

Here's a practical application of the evening star pattern:

  1. Setup: Stock JKL has risen from $30 to $45 over several weeks.
  2. Pattern Identification: A large green candle pushes JKL to $45, followed by a small doji star that gaps slightly higher, followed by a strong red candle that closes at $41.
  3. Confirmation: Volume on the third day is twice the 10-day average, and technical indicators show overbought conditions.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a short position at $40.50.
  5. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed above the high of the star candle at $46.00.
  6. Target: The profit target is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior uptrend, around $36.50.

Chapter 5: Continuation Patterns

Continuation patterns suggest that a trend is pausing temporarily before resuming in the same direction. These patterns often represent periods of consolidation or market indecision, providing traders with opportunities to enter positions in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Doji (Various Types)

Characteristics

  • Opening and closing prices are the same or very close
  • Creates a cross, plus, or inverted cross shape
  • Common variants include the standard doji, long-legged doji, dragonfly doji, and gravestone doji
  • Can appear in any trend context
Doji Patterns

Various types of Doji candles showing market indecision.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The doji represents perfect equilibrium between buyers and sellers. After the session's battles, neither side has managed to gain an advantage. In the context of an ongoing trend, this can signal:

  • Potential exhaustion of the current trend
  • Indecision in the market
  • A brief pause before continuation

The significance of a doji depends heavily on the preceding trend and the context in which it appears.

Significance in Different Contexts

Doji Type Description Potential Significance
Standard Doji Equal open and close with upper and lower shadows Market indecision, potential pause in trend
Long-legged Doji Equal open and close with long upper and lower shadows High volatility but ultimate indecision, possible significant reversal
Dragonfly Doji Equal open and close at the high with a long lower shadow Bullish if appears at support or during downtrend
Gravestone Doji Equal open and close at the low with a long upper shadow Bearish if appears at resistance or during uptrend

Trading Examples

Example 1: Doji as Continuation in an Uptrend

  1. Stock MNO has been in an uptrend, rising from $80 to $90.
  2. A doji forms at $90, suggesting temporary indecision after the strong move up.
  3. The following day, MNO opens higher and continues the uptrend.
  4. A trader enters a long position at $91, placing a stop-loss below the low of the doji at $89.

Example 2: Doji at Resistance

  1. Gold has rallied to $1,850, which is a significant resistance level.
  2. A gravestone doji forms at this level, indicating rejection of higher prices.
  3. The following day, gold opens lower and begins to decline.
  4. A trader enters a short position at $1,845, with a stop-loss above the high of the doji at $1,855.

Spinning Tops

Characteristics

  • Small real body (open and close are relatively close)
  • Upper and lower shadows that are longer than the body
  • Can be either bullish (green/white) or bearish (red/black)
  • Often appears during consolidation phases
Spinning Top Pattern

Spinning Top candles indicating indecision in the market.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The spinning top reveals a market in which both bulls and bears were active but neither could gain decisive control. The security traded both up and down during the session (creating the shadows), but closed not far from where it opened. This indicates uncertainty or a temporary equilibrium in the ongoing trend.

Unlike the doji, which shows perfect equilibrium, the spinning top indicates slight advantage to either bulls (if green/white) or bears (if red/black), but the advantage is minimal and doesn't signal strong conviction.

Trading Examples

Example 1: Spinning Tops in a Range

  1. Currency pair EUR/USD has been trading in a range between 1.0800 and 1.0900.
  2. Several consecutive spinning tops form near 1.0850, indicating continued market indecision.
  3. A trader decides to wait for a breakout from the range rather than trading within it, as the spinning tops suggest lack of strong momentum in either direction.

Example 2: Spinning Top Before Continuation

  1. Stock PQR has been in a strong uptrend, rising from $40 to $50.
  2. A spinning top forms at $50, indicating a brief pause in the uptrend.
  3. The next day, PQR forms a strong bullish candle, confirming continuation of the uptrend.
  4. A trader enters a long position at $51, with a stop-loss below the low of the spinning top at $49.

Falling Three Methods

Characteristics

  • Five-candle pattern
  • First candle is a long bearish (red/black) candle
  • Next three candles are small-bodied, often bullish (green/white), contained within the range of the first candle
  • Fifth candle is a long bearish candle that closes below the close of the first candle
  • Appears during a downtrend
Falling Three Methods Pattern

Falling Three Methods pattern within a downtrend, followed by continued downward movement.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The falling three methods pattern represents a brief consolidation or retracement during a strong downtrend. After a significant decline (first candle), some buyers step in for short-term profit-taking or bargain hunting (middle three candles), but they fail to significantly reverse the downtrend. Sellers then regain control (fifth candle), driving prices even lower and confirming the continuation of the downtrend.

This pattern illustrates a classic corrective move within a larger trend, where the brief counter-trend movement serves only to relieve oversold conditions before the primary trend resumes.

Trading Example

Here's how a trader might use the falling three methods pattern:

  1. Setup: Stock STU has been in a downtrend, falling from $60 to $45.
  2. Pattern Identification: A long red candle drops STU to $45, followed by three small bullish candles that stay within the range of the first candle, showing a minor retracement to around $47.
  3. Confirmation: The fifth day produces another long red candle that closes below $45, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a short position at $44, with a stop-loss above the high of the consolidation candles at $47.50.
  5. Target: The profit target is set by measuring the height of the first candle and projecting it down from the breakout point, suggesting a target of around $40.

Rising Three Methods

Characteristics

  • Five-candle pattern
  • First candle is a long bullish (green/white) candle
  • Next three candles are small-bodied, often bearish (red/black), contained within the range of the first candle
  • Fifth candle is a long bullish candle that closes above the close of the first candle
  • Appears during an uptrend
Rising Three Methods Pattern

Rising Three Methods pattern within an uptrend, followed by continued upward movement.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The rising three methods pattern represents a brief consolidation or retracement during a strong uptrend. After a significant advance (first candle), some sellers enter for short-term profit-taking (middle three candles), but they fail to significantly reverse the uptrend. Buyers then regain control (fifth candle), driving prices even higher and confirming the continuation of the uptrend.

This pattern demonstrates how healthy uptrends often include small pullbacks that allow the market to digest gains before continuing higher. The containment of the retracement within the range of the first candle indicates that bears weren't strong enough to truly challenge the prevailing bullish trend.

Trading Example

A trading approach using the rising three methods pattern:

  1. Setup: Gold has been in an uptrend, rising from $1,700 to $1,750 per ounce.
  2. Pattern Identification: A long green candle pushes gold to $1,750, followed by three small red candles that stay within the range of the first candle, showing a minor retracement to around $1,740.
  3. Confirmation: The fifth day produces another long green candle that closes above $1,750, confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
  4. Entry: The trader enters a long position at $1,755, with a stop-loss below the low of the consolidation candles at $1,735.
  5. Target: The profit target is set by measuring the height of the first candle and projecting it up from the breakout point, suggesting a target of around $1,775.

Part 3: Multiple Candlestick Patterns

Chapter 6: Combining Candlesticks for Stronger Signals

Understanding Confluence

Confluence in trading refers to the alignment of multiple factors or signals that support a particular trading decision. When several independent signals point to the same outcome, the probability of a successful trade increases significantly. This principle applies strongly to candlestick patterns.

The power of candlestick analysis increases exponentially when multiple patterns or signals align at the same price level or time period. Rather than relying on a single pattern in isolation, successful traders look for confirmations from different technical elements.

Key sources of confluence with candlestick patterns include:

Examples of Combining Bullish Signals

Hammer + Bullish Engulfing + Support Level

This powerful combination occurs when a hammer candlestick forms at a key support level, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern that confirms the reversal signal.

Trading approach:

  1. Identify a downtrend that's approaching a known support level
  2. Watch for a hammer to form at or near the support level
  3. Confirm the reversal with a bullish engulfing pattern on the following day
  4. Enter a long position with a stop-loss below the low of the hammer
  5. Target previous resistance levels for profit-taking

Morning Star + Oversold RSI + Trend Line Break

This combination brings together a powerful reversal pattern with technical indicator confirmation and a break of the prevailing downtrend.

Trading approach:

  1. Identify a stock in a downtrend with RSI below 30 (oversold)
  2. Look for a morning star pattern to form
  3. Confirm that the third candle of the morning star breaks above the downtrend line
  4. Enter a long position after the completion of the morning star
  5. Place a stop-loss below the low of the pattern
  6. Target the next significant resistance level

Bullish Harami + Golden Cross + Volume Spike

This combination includes a candlestick reversal pattern, a strong trend signal from moving averages, and confirmation from volume.

Trading approach:

  1. Monitor stocks where the 50-day moving average is about to cross above the 200-day moving average (golden cross)
  2. Look for a bullish harami pattern to form around the time of the crossover
  3. Confirm with above-average volume on the second day of the harami
  4. Enter a long position once all three conditions are met
  5. Set a stop-loss below the low of the harami pattern
  6. Consider a trailing stop to capture the potential longer-term uptrend

Examples of Combining Bearish Signals

Shooting Star + Bearish Engulfing + Resistance Level

This combination occurs at a key resistance level, where a shooting star indicates initial rejection of higher prices, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern that confirms the reversal.

Trading approach:

  1. Identify an uptrend that's approaching a known resistance level
  2. Watch for a shooting star to form at or near the resistance
  3. Confirm the reversal with a bearish engulfing pattern on the following day
  4. Enter a short position with a stop-loss above the high of the shooting star
  5. Target previous support levels for profit-taking

Evening Star + Overbought RSI + Double Top

This powerful bearish combination brings together a reversal candlestick pattern, an overbought technical indicator, and a classic chart pattern.

Trading approach:

  1. Identify a stock in an uptrend with RSI above 70 (overbought)
  2. Look for price to approach a previous high, potentially forming a double top
  3. Identify an evening star pattern forming at this resistance level
  4. Enter a short position after the completion of the evening star
  5. Place a stop-loss above the high of the pattern
  6. Target the neckline of the double top or the next significant support level

Dark Cloud Cover + Death Cross + Declining Volume on Rallies

This combination includes a bearish reversal pattern, a major trend reversal signal from moving averages, and a volume pattern that suggests weakening buying pressure.

Trading approach:

  1. Monitor stocks where the 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day moving average (death cross)
  2. Look for a dark cloud cover pattern to form around the time of the crossover
  3. Confirm that recent price rallies have occurred on declining volume
  4. Enter a short position once all three conditions are met
  5. Set a stop-loss above the high of the dark cloud cover pattern
  6. Consider a trailing stop to capture the potential longer-term downtrend
Candlestick Pattern Guide

Charts illustrating scenarios where multiple bullish or bearish candlestick patterns appear together, strengthening the signal.

Professional Tip: When combining candlestick patterns, look for the "story" they tell collectively rather than treating them as isolated signals. The most powerful setups often show a clear progression of market psychology, from doubt to conviction or from exuberance to fear.

Part 4: Chart Patterns

Chapter 7: Trendlines and Channels

Identifying Uptrends, Downtrends, and Sideways Trends

The foundational concept in technical analysis is the trend—the general direction in which an asset's price is moving. Being able to correctly identify the prevailing trend is crucial for successful trading.

Uptrend

An uptrend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Each rally reaches a higher level than the previous rally, and each pullback stops at a higher level than the previous pullback.

Key features:

  • Higher highs and higher lows
  • Upward-sloping trendline connects the lows
  • Price generally stays above moving averages
  • Volume typically increases during advances

Downtrend

A downtrend is characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Each decline reaches a lower level than the previous decline, and each bounce fails to reach the level of the previous high.

Key features:

  • Lower highs and lower lows
  • Downward-sloping trendline connects the highs
  • Price generally stays below moving averages
  • Volume typically increases during declines

Sideways Trend

A sideways trend (also called a range or consolidation) occurs when price oscillates between consistent levels of support and resistance without making significant higher highs or lower lows.

Key features:

  • Price moves within a defined range
  • Horizontal trendlines connect similar highs and lows
  • Moving averages may flatten and converge
  • Volume typically decreases during consolidation

Drawing Trendlines Correctly

Trendlines are one of the simplest yet most powerful tools in technical analysis. When drawn correctly, they help identify the direction and strength of a trend, as well as potential reversal points.

Guidelines for Drawing Effective Trendlines:

  1. Connect significant points: In an uptrend, connect important lows; in a downtrend, connect important highs.
  2. Use at least two points: A trendline needs a minimum of two points to be drawn, but becomes more significant with three or more touches.
  3. Focus on closing prices: While some traders use the extreme highs and lows, connecting the closing prices often provides more reliable trendlines.
  4. Adjust as needed: Trendlines aren't always perfectly straight. Minor adjustments may be necessary as the trend evolves.
  5. Consider the timeframe: Trendlines on higher timeframes (daily, weekly) are generally more significant than those on lower timeframes.
  6. Watch the angle: Extremely steep trendlines (>45 degrees) are often difficult to maintain and may lead to a correction or consolidation.

Trendline Breaks and Their Significance

A trendline break occurs when the price moves significantly beyond an established trendline, often signaling a potential change in the prevailing trend. The significance of a trendline break depends on several factors:

Important: Not all trendline breaks result in trend reversals. Sometimes, a break leads to a period of consolidation before the original trend resumes. Always look for confirmation before acting on a trendline break.

Trading with Trendlines

Trendlines offer various opportunities for traders, depending on whether they're used to trade with the trend or to anticipate reversals:

Trading with the Trend:

  1. Buying at trendline support: In an uptrend, look for opportunities to buy when price pulls back to test the upward trendline.
  2. Selling at trendline resistance: In a downtrend, look for opportunities to sell short when price rallies to test the downward trendline.
  3. Setting stops: Place stop-loss orders just below an upward trendline (for long positions) or just above a downward trendline (for short positions).

Trading Trendline Breaks:

  1. Confirmation strategy: Wait for a decisive break (price closing beyond the trendline) and additional confirmation before entering a counter-trend position.
  2. Retest strategy: After a trendline break, wait for price to retest the broken trendline from the opposite side (former support becomes resistance, or vice versa) before entering.
  3. Measuring potential: Use the height of the trend channel (if applicable) to estimate the potential move after a break.

Channels: Ascending, Descending, Horizontal

A channel is formed by drawing parallel lines that connect the highs and lows of a price trend. Channels provide a visual representation of the range within which an asset is trading, offering insights into potential support and resistance levels.

Ascending Channel

An ascending channel forms when price moves higher in an uptrend, bounded by parallel upward-sloping support and resistance lines.

Trading opportunities:

  • Buy near the lower support line
  • Sell or take profits near the upper resistance line
  • Watch for breakouts above the upper line (acceleration) or below the lower line (potential reversal)

Descending Channel

A descending channel forms when price moves lower in a downtrend, bounded by parallel downward-sloping support and resistance lines.

Trading opportunities:

  • Sell short near the upper resistance line
  • Cover shorts or take profits near the lower support line
  • Watch for breakouts below the lower line (acceleration) or above the upper line (potential reversal)

Horizontal Channel

A horizontal channel (also called a trading range or rectangle) forms when price oscillates between parallel horizontal support and resistance lines.

Trading opportunities:

  • Buy near the lower support line
  • Sell near the upper resistance line
  • Watch for breakouts in either direction, which often lead to significant moves

Trading with Channels

Channels offer versatile trading opportunities, whether you're looking to trade within the channel or anticipate breakouts:

Trading Within the Channel:

  1. Range-bound strategy: Buy at the lower boundary and sell at the upper boundary (for ascending or horizontal channels), or sell at the upper boundary and cover at the lower boundary (for descending channels).
  2. Risk management: Place stops just outside the channel boundaries to protect against false breakouts.
  3. Target setting: Set profit targets just before the opposite channel boundary to increase the probability of reaching them.

Trading Channel Breakouts:

  1. Continuation breakouts: A break above an ascending channel or below a descending channel suggests acceleration of the existing trend.
  2. Reversal breakouts: A break below an ascending channel or above a descending channel may signal a trend reversal.
  3. Measuring targets: Project the height of the channel from the breakout point to estimate the potential move.

Trading Tip: Channels often work well with the "one-third rule"—instead of waiting for price to reach the exact channel boundary, consider taking partial profits when price has moved about one-third of the way from one boundary toward the other, and then let the remainder of the position run to the boundary or beyond.

Chart Patterns

Charts showing correctly drawn uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends with trendlines and channels.

Chapter 8: Reversal Chart Patterns

Reversal chart patterns signal that a trend is likely to change direction. These patterns typically form after extended price movements and indicate a shift in the balance of power between buyers and sellers. Identifying reversal patterns early can provide traders with high-reward trading opportunities.

Head and Shoulders (and Inverse Head and Shoulders)

Characteristics

  • Head and Shoulders (Bearish Reversal):
    • Forms after an uptrend
    • Consists of three peaks: a left shoulder, a higher head, and a right shoulder
    • The neckline connects the troughs between the shoulders and the head
    • Signals a potential trend change from bullish to bearish
  • Inverse Head and Shoulders (Bullish Reversal):
    • Forms after a downtrend
    • Consists of three troughs: a left shoulder, a lower head, and a right shoulder
    • The neckline connects the peaks between the shoulders and the head
    • Signals a potential trend change from bearish to bullish
Head and Shoulders Pattern

Detailed illustration of a Head and Shoulders pattern with labels for neckline, shoulders, and head.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

The head and shoulders pattern represents a gradual shift in market psychology:

  1. The left shoulder forms during strong bullish sentiment, creating a new high.
  2. A pullback occurs, but buyers return to push the price to an even higher level (the head), seemingly confirming the uptrend.
  3. After another pullback, buyers try to push prices higher again but fail to reach the previous high, forming the right shoulder.
  4. This failure to make a new high indicates weakening buying pressure.
  5. When price breaks below the neckline, it confirms that bears have taken control, often leading to a significant downward move.

The inverse head and shoulders follows the same psychological process but in reverse, showing waning selling pressure and increasing buying interest.

Volume Confirmation

Volume plays a crucial role in validating head and shoulders patterns:

  • Volume typically decreases as the pattern forms, reflecting diminishing conviction in the prevailing trend
  • Volume should be highest during the formation of the left shoulder, moderate during the head, and lowest during the right shoulder
  • A significant increase in volume during the neckline break provides strong confirmation of the pattern

Profit Targets

To estimate the potential move after a head and shoulders pattern completes:

  1. Measure the vertical distance from the top of the head to the neckline
  2. Project this distance from the neckline break point in the direction of the new trend

This measured move approach provides a reasonable price target, though it should be adjusted based on other support or resistance levels in that area.

Stop-Loss Placement

Effective stop-loss strategies for head and shoulders patterns include:

  • For bearish head and shoulders: Place the stop slightly above the right shoulder high
  • For bullish inverse head and shoulders: Place the stop slightly below the right shoulder low
  • Alternative approach: Place a stop beyond the 50% retracement level of the neckline breakout move

Trading Examples

Example 1: Head and Shoulders (Bearish)

  1. Stock XYZ has been in an uptrend, rising from $50 to $75 over several months.
  2. A head and shoulders pattern forms with the left shoulder at $70, the head at $75, and the right shoulder at $68.
  3. The neckline connects the troughs at approximately $65.
  4. The stock breaks below the neckline on increased volume, confirming the pattern.
  5. Target: The height of the pattern is $10 ($75 - $65), projecting a downside target of $55 ($65 - $10).
  6. Stop-loss is placed at $69, just above the right shoulder.

Example 2: Inverse Head and Shoulders (Bullish)

  1. EUR/USD has been in a downtrend, falling from 1.1500 to 1.0800.
  2. An inverse head and shoulders pattern forms with the left shoulder at 1.0850, the head at 1.0800, and the right shoulder at 1.0870.
  3. The neckline connects the peaks at approximately 1.0900.
  4. The pair breaks above the neckline on strong volume, confirming the pattern.
  5. Target: The height of the pattern is 100 pips (1.0900 - 1.0800), projecting an upside target of 1.1000 (1.0900 + 0.0100).
  6. Stop-loss is placed at 1.0850, just below the right shoulder.

Double Top and Double Bottom

Characteristics

  • Double Top (Bearish Reversal):
    • Forms after an uptrend
    • Price reaches a high, pulls back, and then fails to break above the previous high
    • The pattern completes when price breaks below the trough between the two peaks
    • Resembles the letter "M"
  • Double Bottom (Bullish Reversal):
    • Forms after a downtrend
    • Price reaches a low, rebounds, and then tests but fails to break below the previous low
    • The pattern completes when price breaks above the peak between the two troughs
    • Resembles the letter "W"
Double Top Pattern

Double top pattern indicating a bearish reversal.

Double Bottom Pattern

Double bottom pattern indicating a bullish reversal.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

Double tops and bottoms represent the market's test of significant price levels and the subsequent rejection:

  • Double Top: The first peak represents strong buying interest. The pullback that follows is normal profit-taking. When buyers attempt to push the price higher again but fail to exceed the previous peak, it suggests that buying pressure has weakened. The break below the intermediate trough confirms that sellers have taken control.
  • Double Bottom: The first trough represents strong selling pressure. The rally that follows is a normal relief bounce. When sellers attempt to push the price lower again but fail to break the previous low, it suggests that selling pressure has diminished. The break above the intermediate peak confirms that buyers have taken control.

Volume Confirmation

Ideal volume patterns for double tops and bottoms include:

  • For double tops: Volume is typically higher on the first peak than on the second, indicating diminishing buying pressure. Volume should increase significantly during the breakdown below the trough.
  • For double bottoms: Volume may be higher on the first low, reflecting climactic selling. A noticeable increase in volume should accompany the breakout above the intermediate high.

Profit Targets

The measuring technique for double tops and bottoms:

  1. Measure the vertical distance from the peaks/troughs to the intermediate trough/peak
  2. Project this distance from the breakout point in the direction of the new trend

Stop-Loss Placement

Common stop-loss strategies include:

  • For double tops: Place the stop above the second peak
  • For double bottoms: Place the stop below the second trough
  • Alternative approach: Use a percentage of the pattern's height for a tighter stop

Trading Examples

Example: Double Top

  1. Gold has risen from $1,700 to $1,850 over several weeks.
  2. Price pulls back to $1,800 before rallying back to test $1,850 again.
  3. The second test fails, and price begins to fall.
  4. When gold breaks below $1,800 (the intermediate trough), the double top is confirmed.
  5. Target: The height of the pattern is $50 ($1,850 - $1,800), suggesting a target of $1,750 ($1,800 - $50).
  6. Stop-loss is placed at $1,860, just above the second peak.

Example: Double Bottom

  1. Stock ABC has fallen from $45 to $30.
  2. Price rebounds to $35 before falling to test $30 again.
  3. The second test holds, and price begins to rise.
  4. When ABC breaks above $35 (the intermediate peak), the double bottom is confirmed.
  5. Target: The height of the pattern is $5 ($35 - $30), suggesting a target of $40 ($35 + $5).
  6. Stop-loss is placed at $29, just below the second trough.

Triple Top and Triple Bottom

Characteristics

  • Triple Top (Bearish Reversal):
    • Forms after an uptrend
    • Price tests the same resistance level three times and fails to break through
    • The pattern completes when price breaks below the support line connecting the troughs between the peaks
  • Triple Bottom (Bullish Reversal):
    • Forms after a downtrend
    • Price tests the same support level three times and fails to break through
    • The pattern completes when price breaks above the resistance line connecting the peaks between the troughs

Psychology Behind the Pattern

Triple tops and bottoms represent persistent tests of key levels and often signal a more decisive reversal than double tops/bottoms. Each successive test of the same level reinforces its significance and demonstrates the market's inability to break through despite multiple attempts.

Volume Confirmation

The ideal volume pattern shows:

  • Progressively lower volume on each test of the resistance (for triple tops) or support (for triple bottoms)
  • Significant volume increase on the breakout

Trading Examples

Example: Triple Top

  1. Stock DEF has been in an uptrend and tests the $85 level three times over two months.
  2. Each test is followed by a pullback to around $78-$80.
  3. After the third failed test, price breaks below $78 on high volume.
  4. Target: The height of the pattern is $7 ($85 - $78), suggesting a target of $71 ($78 - $7).
  5. Stop-loss is placed at $86, just above the triple top resistance.

Rounding Bottom (Saucer Bottom) and Rounding Top (Saucer Top)

Characteristics

  • Rounding Bottom (Bullish Reversal):
    • Forms after a downtrend
    • Resembles a "U" or saucer shape
    • Price gradually transitions from a downtrend to an uptrend in a curved pattern
    • Usually forms over an extended period, suggesting a slow, steady shift in sentiment
  • Rounding Top (Bearish Reversal):
    • Forms after an uptrend
    • Resembles an inverted "U" or upside-down saucer
    • Price gradually transitions from an uptrend to a downtrend in a curved pattern
    • Similarly forms over an extended period
Rounding Bottom Pattern

Rounding bottom pattern indicating a gradual bullish reversal.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

Rounding patterns represent a gradual, rather than abrupt, change in market sentiment:

  • In a rounding bottom, selling pressure slowly diminishes and is gradually replaced by buying interest.
  • In a rounding top, buying enthusiasm gradually wanes and gives way to selling pressure.
  • These patterns suggest a more balanced and potentially more sustainable transition between bulls and bears.

Trading Examples

Example: Rounding Bottom

  1. Stock GHI has declined from $60 to $40 and begins forming a rounding bottom over several months.
  2. The pattern starts with a steep decline that gradually flattens and then slowly turns upward.
  3. Volume typically follows a similar pattern: higher during the initial decline, lowest at the bottom of the "U," and increasing again as price rises.
  4. Entry: When price breaks above a significant resistance level (e.g., $50) with increasing volume.
  5. Target: Measure from the low of the pattern to the breakout point and project upward, or use previous resistance levels.
  6. Stop-loss is placed below a recent swing low within the pattern.

V-Bottom and Inverted V-Bottom (Spikes)

Characteristics

  • V-Bottom (Bullish Reversal):
    • Forms after a sharp, often panic-driven downtrend
    • Price reverses abruptly without consolidation
    • Creates a "V" shape on the chart
    • Often occurs during capitulation or market crashes
  • V-Top (Bearish Reversal):
    • Forms after a steep, often euphoric uptrend
    • Price reverses abruptly without consolidation
    • Creates an inverted "V" shape on the chart
    • Often occurs during blow-off tops or market bubbles

Psychology Behind the Pattern

V-patterns represent extreme market conditions and sudden shifts in sentiment:

  • V-bottoms often occur when panic selling exhausts itself and bargain hunters step in aggressively.
  • V-tops typically happen when euphoric buying reaches an unsustainable climax and sellers suddenly take control.
  • Both patterns lack the usual consolidation period seen in most reversal patterns, making them more difficult to trade in real-time.

Trading Considerations

V-patterns present unique challenges for traders:

  • They're easier to identify in hindsight than in real-time
  • The lack of consolidation makes entry/exit points less defined
  • The sharp nature of the reversal often means significant slippage when trying to enter
  • A more prudent approach is to wait for a small pullback after the initial reversal before entering

Example: V-Bottom

  1. During a market panic, cryptocurrency Bitcoin falls from $50,000 to $30,000 in just three days.
  2. Without forming any consolidation pattern, price suddenly reverses and rallies back to $40,000 within the next two days.
  3. This V-shaped recovery suggests capitulation and exhaustion of selling pressure.
  4. Rather than chasing the initial bounce, a prudent trader might wait for a pullback to around $36,000 before entering a long position.
  5. Stop-loss could be placed below the most recent swing low that forms during the pullback.

Chapter 9: Continuation Chart Patterns

Continuation patterns indicate a temporary pause or consolidation in the prevailing trend before it resumes in the same direction. These patterns typically represent periods where the market is gathering strength for the next move or where profit-taking creates a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Flags and Pennants (Bullish and Bearish)

Characteristics

  • Flags:
    • Form after a sharp, near-vertical price move (the "flagpole")
    • Consist of a small, rectangular price channel that slopes against the prevailing trend
    • Bullish flags slope downward; bearish flags slope upward
    • Typically last 1-3 weeks (though they can be shorter on lower timeframes)
  • Pennants:
    • Also form after a sharp price move
    • Create a small, symmetrical triangle pattern with converging trendlines
    • Volume typically decreases during the formation
    • Usually shorter in duration than flags
Pennant Pattern

Pennant pattern forming after a strong upward move, indicating a bullish continuation.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

Flags and pennants represent temporary pauses in strong trend moves:

  1. The initial sharp move (flagpole) represents strong momentum and conviction in the trend direction.
  2. As the security becomes temporarily overbought (in an uptrend) or oversold (in a downtrend), some traders take profits.
  3. This profit-taking creates a short-term counter-trend move or consolidation (the flag or pennant).
  4. Once this period of profit-taking and consolidation completes, the original trend resumes with a breakout in the trend direction.

Breakout Confirmation

To confirm a valid breakout from a flag or pennant:

  • Price should break decisively beyond the pattern boundary in the direction of the prevailing trend
  • The breakout should occur on increased volume, especially for bullish patterns
  • The breakout should occur within a reasonable time frame (patterns that drag on too long may lose their predictive value)

Profit Targets

The measuring technique for flags and pennants:

  1. Measure the length of the "flagpole" (the sharp move preceding the pattern)
  2. Project this same distance from the point of breakout in the direction of the trend

This "measuring principle" typically provides a minimum target, with the actual move potentially extending further if conditions are favorable.

Stop-Loss Placement

Common stop-loss strategies include:

  • Place a stop just beyond the opposite side of the pattern
  • For flags: Place the stop beyond the highest point of a bearish flag or lowest point of a bullish flag
  • For pennants: Place the stop beyond the converging trendlines on the opposite side of the breakout

Trading Examples

Example 1: Bullish Flag

  1. Stock JKL rises sharply from $50 to $60 (the flagpole) in one week on strong volume.
  2. Over the next week, price drifts down in a channel from $60 to $57, forming a flag pattern with declining volume.
  3. Price then breaks above the upper trendline of the flag at $58 on increased volume.
  4. Entry: Go long at $58.20, just above the breakout point.
  5. Target: The flagpole height is $10, suggesting a target of $68 ($58 + $10).
  6. Stop-loss: Place a stop at $56.50, just below the low of the flag pattern.

Example 2: Bearish Pennant

  1. EUR/USD falls sharply from 1.1200 to 1.0900 (the flagpole) over three days.
  2. Price then consolidates in a symmetrical triangle between 1.0900 and 1.0950 for the next two days, with decreasing volume.
  3. EUR/USD breaks below the lower trendline of the pennant at 1.0910.
  4. Entry: Go short at 1.0900, just below the breakout point.
  5. Target: The flagpole height is 300 pips, suggesting a target of 1.0600 (1.0900 - 0.0300).
  6. Stop-loss: Place a stop at 1.0960, just above the high of the pennant pattern.

Wedges (Rising and Falling)

Characteristics

  • Rising Wedge:
    • Bounded by two upward-sloping, converging trendlines
    • The upper trendline has a shallower slope than the lower trendline
    • Can be a bearish continuation pattern in a downtrend or a bearish reversal pattern in an uptrend
    • Volume typically decreases as the pattern forms
  • Falling Wedge:
    • Bounded by two downward-sloping, converging trendlines
    • The lower trendline has a shallower slope than the upper trendline
    • Can be a bullish continuation pattern in an uptrend or a bullish reversal pattern in a downtrend
    • Volume also typically decreases during formation
Rising Wedge Pattern

Rising wedge pattern typically indicating a bearish move to come.

Falling Wedge Pattern

Falling wedge pattern typically indicating a bullish move to come.

Psychology Behind the Pattern

Wedges represent a gradual shift in the balance between buyers and sellers:

  • Rising Wedge: Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows, but the higher highs are forming at a slower rate than the higher lows. This suggests that buying pressure is weakening while selling pressure is increasing, leading to an eventual breakdown.
  • Falling Wedge: Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs, but the lower lows are forming at a slower rate than the lower highs. This indicates that selling pressure is diminishing while buying interest is slowly growing, leading to an eventual breakout to the upside.

Breakout Confirmation

To confirm a valid breakout from a wedge:

  • Price should break decisively beyond the pattern boundary
  • The breakout should be accompanied by an increase in volume
  • Look for a retest of the broken trendline, which often provides a high-probability entry point

Trading Examples

Example: Rising Wedge as Continuation Pattern

  1. Gold has been in a downtrend, falling from $1,900 to $1,750.
  2. Price then forms a rising wedge, climbing from $1,750 to $1,800 over three weeks, with the upper and lower trendlines converging.
  3. Volume decreases throughout the wedge formation.
  4. Gold breaks below the lower trendline at $1,790 on increased volume.
  5. Entry: Go short at $1,785, after confirming the breakdown.
  6. Target: Measure the height of the wedge at its widest point ($50) and project it down from the breakout point, suggesting a target of $1,740.
  7. Stop-loss: Place a stop at $1,805, just above a recent swing high within the wedge.

Example: Falling Wedge as Continuation Pattern

  1. Stock MNO has been in an uptrend, rising from $30 to $45.
  2. Price then forms a falling wedge, declining from $45 to $40 over two weeks, with converging trendlines.
  3. Volume steadily decreases during the wedge formation.
  4. MNO breaks above the upper trendline at $41 with a notable increase in volume.
  5. Entry: Go long at $41.50, after confirming the breakout.
  6. Target: The height of the wedge at its widest point is $5, suggesting a target of $46 ($41 + $5).
  7. Stop-loss: Place a stop at $39.50, just below a recent swing low within the wedge.

Rectangles

Characteristics

  • Bounded by two parallel, horizontal trendlines connecting a series of highs and lows
  • Price oscillates between defined support and resistance levels
  • Can act as either continuation or reversal patterns, though continuation is more common
  • Volume typically diminishes during the formation and increases on the breakout
  • Also known as trading ranges or consolidation patterns

Psychology Behind the Pattern

Rectangles represent periods of equilibrium and indecision in the market:

  • After a strong price movement, some traders take profits while others enter new positions in anticipation of continuation.
  • This creates a balance between buying and selling pressure, establishing clear support and resistance levels.
  • As the pattern develops, traders buy near support and sell near resistance, reinforcing these levels.
  • Eventually, a breakout occurs when enough momentum builds in one direction, often continuing the original trend.

Trading Examples

Example: Bullish Rectangle

  1. Stock PQR has been in an uptrend, rising from $20 to $30.
  2. Price then consolidates between $28 (support) and $